Brian Buffini, a highly successful Realtor in his own right and one of the nation’s leading business coaches, recently shared his Bold Predictions answering some of the questions buyers and sellers all have about the real estate market.

Where are interest rates headed? Come Spring of 2024, Buffini believes the rates are going to drop several times, bringing us to 5.75% by the end of the year and 5.25% the following year, ending at 5.0. In all likelihood, short of another global or national emergency, we won’t be seeing those historically low rates again of 2 and 3% which were artificially manufactured.

What’s the magic number to get buyers back into the market? Homebuilders who have brought rates down below six percent have been moving homes, so it appears that getting under that number is the sweet spot to trigger buyer action.

What’s the state of the market? There is a huge pent-up buyer demand and a buildup of sellers wanting to sell. Consider this: 45.4 million people are in the household formation stage of their lives—that’s the largest number of people in that space in the history of the country, so there are lots of people in the “on-deck” circle ready to spring into action once the rates go down. That picture is reinforced by the strong employment picture coupled with increasingly high rents, making home ownership look more attractive once the rates drop.

On the supply side, there is a pent-up desire for sellers to move. Even though their lifestyles have changed (they’ve become empty nesters, their kids have moved away, physical limitations call for a different floorplan), they keep holding on to a house that no longer fits them because they can’t part with those low-interest rates. Other reasons for moving include needing a bigger space, wanting a vacation home, or wanting to cash in on all the equity sitting in their home.

Admittedly we are coming out of slow housing market. In 2023 transactions nationwide were down from 5.1 million to 3.9 million (a 20% drop). Lake Oswego experienced a 14% drop in homes sold from 590 in 2022 Year-to-Date to 506. Buffini projects 4.6 million sales in 2024, followed by 5.3 million in 2025.

What does that mean for the future? It means that buyers have a strategic decision to make—when to enter the market. Because once that tipping point in terms of interest rates happens, buyers will be coming out of the gate in droves and we may see bidding wars again like we did in the pandemic.

Our advice. Start getting yourself ready now to take action when the strategic timing seems right. That means making your wish list, meeting with a lender, and sitting down with a hyper-local Realtor like my daughter or myself to identify the areas where homes are most likely to match your “wish list” and your “can afford” list. We know this market and can put our knowledge, expertise and connections to work to help you make your next (or first) move your best one!

Kevin Costello 503.939.9801 kevin.costello@cascadehassonsir.com

Riley Costello 971.322.6205 riley.costello@cascadehassonsir.com