If you’ve been following the real estate headlines lately, you’ve probably heard every phrase imaginable to describe today’s market:

Balanced market.
Nobody’s market.
Housing stalemate.
Mobility crisis.

It’s enough to make anyone wonder… what’s really going on?

Let’s dial it down and talk specifically about Lake Oswego.

So… What Kind of Market Are We In?

Right now, Lake Oswego is sitting at 5.5 months of inventory. In real estate terms, that’s considered a balanced market (4–6 months is balanced, under 4 favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers).

The numbers tell an interesting story:

• Homes are taking longer to sell — properties spent 52 more days on the market in January 2026 than in January 2025.
• The number of homes sold in January is down 22% year over year.
• Overall sales volume is down 16% compared to the same time last year.

At first glance, that sounds like a buyer’s market.

But here’s where it gets nuanced.

The median sales price is up 5% from last January. The median list price is up 4%. And homes are still selling at 98% of list price — which means while the intense pandemic bidding wars have cooled, pricing remains strong and stable.

That’s not a crashing market. That’s a recalibrating one.

It’s Not One Market — It’s Several

Lake Oswego has always been a micro-market town, and that’s especially true right now.

We’re seeing more buyer-leaning conditions in these price ranges:

• Under $400,000
• $800,000–$1.2M
• $1.6M–$2.8M
• Above $4M

Meanwhile, homes priced between $400,000–$800,000 are sitting at just 1.9 months of inventory, clearly favoring sellers.

The takeaway? It depends. The strategy for a $650,000 home is completely different than for a $2.5M home. That’s why understanding the “pockets” matters.

And here’s something important to remember: pricing and preparation still win.

It still stands true that homes priced well — even in a technically “buyer’s” market — can move quickly. We saw that just recently in our own neighborhood when a home in the $1.4 million range received multiple offers and sold over list price. The right pricing strategy and presentation can absolutely create momentum, regardless of the broader headlines.

Is It a “Nobody’s Market”?

Recently, celebrity broker Ryan Serhant of Owning Manhattan told Fox Business:

“This isn’t a buyer’s market or a seller’s market — it’s nobody’s market because no one knows what to do.”

There’s truth in that. Many buyers are waiting for interest rates to return to historic lows (unlikely). Many sellers are waiting for a surge of buyers that looks like 2021 (also unlikely).

It’s created what feels like a standoff — a housing stalemate.

But here’s the reality: that market no longer exists. And the sooner expectations shift, the sooner opportunity opens up.

We’re already seeing that shift happen.

The “Mobility Crisis” — And the Real Story

Nationally, first-time buyers are facing challenges. The National Association of Realtors’ 2025 Profile shows the median age of a first-time buyer has climbed to 40, and they now represent just 21% of the market — compared to 40% before 2008.

That said, we are still helping first-time and under-40 buyers break into Lake Oswego.

Sometimes that means:

• Strategic financial planning
• Leveraging equity from other markets
• Family support
• Creative financing solutions

It’s not always easy — but it’s absolutely possible.

So What Should You Believe?

Believe the local data.
Believe in strategy over headlines.
Believe that opportunity still exists — it just looks different than it did three years ago.

Today’s market rewards preparation, pricing precision, and realistic expectations. It’s not about waiting for “the perfect moment.” It’s about understanding this moment.

And that’s where having an experienced Lake Oswego Realtor truly matters.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, let’s talk through your specific situation. The right strategy — tailored to your price point and goals — can make all the difference.

Because in a market like this, clarity isn’t just helpful.

It’s powerful.

Kevin Costello kevin.costello@cascadehasson.com 503.939.9801

Riley Costello riley.costello@cascadehasson.com 971.322.6205