When it comes to the Lake Oswego housing market, don’t believe everything you hear.

Here are a few rumors currently circulating that need to be fact-checked.

EVERYBODY IS MOVING TO TEXAS. Yes, we know a few Lake Oswego residents who have made Texas their primary residence, but still manage to visit Lake Oswego quite often, especially during the summer. But, according to the annual study by United Van Lines, Idaho saw the biggest inbound moves at 70% with South Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Arizona also ranking in the top 5 with inbound moves at 60% or higher. Oregon actually saw 62.5% inbound moves compared to 37.5% outbound, with 30% moving here for family reasons and another 39.6% relocating due to a job.

New Jersey was at the bottom of that list with 69.5% outbound moves compared to only 30.5% of the movers wanting to come in. Other states seeing more exodus than influx included New York, Illinois, Connecticut and California.

Places that are doing well in Texas are suburbs outside of the big cities, just as we are seeing across the United States and here in Oregon. Located just 12 miles outside of Portland, Lake Oswego is a highly desirable suburb to relocate to.

THE HOUSING BUBBLE IS GOING TO BURST. Unlike the housing frenzy that gave way to the Great Recession, this spike is not being artificially fueled by a free flow of money. Lending standards are being upheld, not eased. Instead the fundamentals of supply and demand are driving this housing market surge and they don’t show any signs of letting up soon. Experts are predicting that 2021 will continue to be a bull market for housing.

REMODELING MY HOUSE WILL BE CHEAPER THAN MOVING. Thanks to COVID, we are all spending more time in our homes, and needing more amenities, like home offices and bigger family rooms. Instead of moving, one option is to remodel; however, the rise in lumber prices may leave homeowners with sticker shock. Lumber prices hit a record high in mid-February for a variety of reasons: demand being one, but also because CNBC reports that “mill operators and lumber dealers misread the 2020 market” and pulled back on production. Then when COVID hit and construction projects were halted, their initial read of the situation was reinforced. When the boon followed, they weren’t prepared, and COVID safety protocols then made it hard to kick production back into high gear.

Of course, this spike in lumber prices is also affecting new construction, so that will be reflected in new home costs as well. However, builders realize they can only pass on so much of the additional cost on to buyers which cuts into their profitability. That combination runs the risk that some builders may wait this period out until lumber prices come down, adding to the imbalance in the market between supply and demand.

FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS CAN’T AFFORD LAKE OSWEGO. I’m not going to lie. Buying a home in Lake Oswego as a first-time homebuyer can be challenging, but it is doable. Check out one of my earlier blogs. Currently there are three condominiums under $200,000 for sale in Lake Oswego and seven single family residences under $600,000. All seven of the homes are pending and have been on the market for an average of 32 days on the market, so you can see there is a high demand for this entry level price into the Lake Oswego market. All the more reason to work with an experienced Realtor like myself to ensure your chances of coming out ahead in this competitive market.

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